Why Saudi Investment Has Not Turned The Magpies into Title Challengers

The Newcastle manager is not given to dramatics or sweeping public pronouncements. Based on his usual demeanor, his press conference after Sunday’s loss to West Ham qualifies as a furious outburst. Newcastle took an early lead but West Ham were ahead by the interval, as well as hitting the post and having a penalty overturned by VAR, prompting Howe to execute a three substitutions at the break.

“The opening period was particularly irritating,” Howe said. “I almost could have taken anyone off and I believe this indicated of where we were at that stage during the match and it’s very, very rare for me to feel that way. Actually, I cannot recall I have during my tenure as head coach of the club, therefore I believed the squad needed a significant change at half-time. That’s why I made what I did.”

Three key players all came off at the interval and Newcastle did stabilise to an extent in the second half, without ever really looking like they could get back into the contest against an opponent that had secured just a single victory of their last nine fixtures. Given how packed the middle of the standings is, with a mere three-point gap separating third from 11th, and a nine-point margin between the upper and lower ranks, a run of 12 points from 10 games has not left the Magpies adrift but, similarly, they cannot finish the season in thirteenth place.

The Issue of Expectations

The challenge to an extent is one of public view. With the Saudi PIF, the club have the wealthiest owners in the world. The expectation at the time the Saudi fund acquired 80% of the club in 2021 was that it would have a game-changing impact, as Roman Abramovich had at Chelsea or the City Group had at Manchester City. The distinction is that both of those owners assumed control before the introduction of FFP rules (and the ongoing charges against Manchester City relate to if they breached those guidelines once they were implemented).

Profit and sustainability regulations limit the capacity of owners, however rich, to spend money on their squads and so in that sense likely would have hindered every Middle Eastern effort to elevate Newcastle to the level of City. But there is no need for Newcastle’s expenditure to have been quite as cautious as it has; they could have invested further and stayed inside the limit – or just accepted a fairly minor European penalty since their major problem is primarily with the continental than the domestic regulation.

Stadium Spending and Financial Regulations

Besides which, stadium development is exempted from PSR calculations; the easiest method to increase revenue to generate more financial headroom would be to expand or renovate the arena. Considering the site of the home ground, with listed buildings on multiple sides, in reality that probably means building an entirely new venue. There was talk in March of possibly making the short move to a local park – opposition from local groups could surely have been surmounted with a promise to build a new park on the existing ground location – but there has been no movement on that plan. There has been substantial cutbacks from the Saudi fund on a variety of initiatives as it refocuses on local investments; the approach to the football club seems entirely in keeping with that strategic shift.

Player Sales Situation

The Alexander Isak episode was arose from that tension. A bolder leadership could have framed his transfer as necessary to release funds for further investment; rather there was a vain effort to retain him. That meant Newcastle started the campaign amid a sense of frustration despite the signings of Woltemade, Yoane Wissa, Jacob Ramsey, Malick Thiaw and Anthony Elanga. The opening was mixed: a single victory in their initial six fixtures.

But it appeared a turning point was reached. They had won five in six prior to Sunday, a streak that included convincing wins of Union Saint-Gilloise and Benfica in the Champions League. That’s why the performance against the Hammers was such a shock. The issue perhaps is that Newcastle’s style is extremely intense, high-energy; a slight drop-off in intensity can have profound effects. Perhaps the strain of Premier League, European and Carabao Cup competition, five games in 15 days, had got to them. Woltemade started each of those games and looked particularly weary.

The Nature of Contemporary Soccer

This is the nature of modern the sport. Coaches must be ready to rotate. The manager has been unlucky that Wissa’s injury has left him short of forward choices but, no matter how valid the reasons, the weekend's showing was unacceptable –especially following taking the lead at a stadium ready to criticize its own side.

The Newcastle boss will wish it was just a blip, one of those days when all players is below par simultaneously, but if Newcastle are to qualify for the Champions League in the future, not to mention one day mount an genuine title challenge, they cannot be as inconsistent as this.